Stadium Home Run Factor

One of things which makes baseball fascinating is all stadium measurements are not the same, and it seems hitters find it easier in some settings and pitchers have more success in others. How much difference is it? And is it really such a thing as a stadium factor? Is it possible to find hidden value when players change teams? Home runs have spiked the last couple of seasons, and teams are now built around multiple power hitters. In this article we study the difference between home runs allowed around all MLB ballparks.

Fantasy players already know certain stadiums are know as hitter ballparks, but these assumptions should be built around facts. Home runs can differ from different stadiums as we can see in this table.

Stadium Home Run factor 2018

Ballpark Team HR Factor
Great American Ball Park Cincinnati Reds 1,395
Coors Field Colorado Rockies 1,280
Globe Life Park Texas Rangers 1,273
Citizens Bank Park Philadelphia Phillies 1,190
Nationals Park Washington Nationals 1,173
Yankee Stadium New York Yankees 1,166
Angel Stadium Los Angeles Angels 1,138
Rogers Centre Toronto Blue Jays 1,125
Oriole Park at Camden Yards Baltimore Orioles 1,121
Miller Park Milwaukee Brewers 1,116
Dodger Stadium Los Angeles Dodgers 1,057
Minute Maid Park Houston Astros 1,040
Wrigley Field Chicago Cubs 1,025
Progressive Field Clevland Indians 1,019
Safeco Field Seattle Mariners 0,984
Petco Park San Diego Padres 0,983
Fenway Park Boston Red Sox 0,969
Guaranteed Rate Field Chicago White Sox 0,969
Chase Field Arizona Diamondbacks 0,955
Target Field Minnesota Twins 0,916
Kauffman Stadium Kansas City Royals 0,895
Citi Field New York Mets 0,888
Tropicana Field Tampa Bay Rays 0,880
Comerica Park Detroit Tigers 0,867
Busch Stadium St Louis Cardinals 0,856
PNC Park Pittsburgh Pirates 0,849
SunTrust Park Atlanta Braves 0,802
Oakland Coliseum Oakland Athletics 0,756
AT&T Park San Francisco Giants 0,752
Marlins Park Miami Marlins 0,650

The Stadium Home Run factor tells us something about how easy or hard it is to hit a home run in different MLB ballparks. A high factor favors the hitter, compared to a low number which favors the pitcher. The factor is calculated as followed:

HF = ((HH + HHA)/HG) / ((HA + HAA)/RG)

HF – Home Run Factor

HH – Home Runs Home

HHA – Home Runs Home Allowed

HG – Home Games

HA – Home Runs Away

HAA – Home Runs Away Allowed

RG – Road Games

First some teams have played “home games” in different stadiums but in the statistics above adjustment have not been made. All stats are from 2018, which for example is important for Arizona Diamondbacks, because they installed a humidor just before the season began.

Limitations

The stats above is calculated per game basis and not per at bat basis. Maybe one team has had considerably more at bats home compared to away, and that would limit the data calculated.

It is important to know what the stadium factor tells us. Conclusions cannot be made solely on a high stadium factor will give your fantasy team a lot of home runs. The total number of home runs is foremost dependent on the players on your roster. Power hitters will hit more home runs compared to soft contact bats, but if you compare the same kind of player over a large margin of games, tendencies show you can trust the stats more. The numbers above tell us something about a stadium compared to others with the same players. For a single game it will have more limited use, compared to an entire season. You probably want many power hitters to play in a stadium with a high Stadium Home Run Factor because over a full 81 home games season it will give you some extra value.

The stats above are only collected for the 2018 regular season and a better collection of data would give more precise results. Ideally you would make the same calculations for multiple season, as long as the stadiums were the same. Changes to the stadiums are made all the time and it will affect the performance of both hitters and pitchers. A good example is Arizona Diamondbacks installed a humidor before the start of last season, and it was thought to be an advantage for the pitchers.

The Stadium Factor is calculated together for both for left-handed and right-handed hitters/pitchers. Ballparks can be friendlier to one of the above, and next step would be to get more information and maybe find a greater difference.

Conclusion

Surprisingly at the top of the list we do not find Coors Field, who many would have guessed. Instead Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati Reds, is at the top followed by Coors Field and Globe Life Park. Yankee Stadium which is considered very hitter friendly is “only” on 7th place. At the bottom of the list in 2018 we find Marlins Park, AT&T Stadium and Oakland Coliseum, all of them are considered pitcher friendly. The assumptions most fans have made is true to some extent. Hitter ballparks are something the fantasy community tend to talk about a lot, and when starting pitchers are streamed something to consider. Advanced stats have been calculated for players which try to neutralize the stadium factor, which would make it easier to compare players.

Great American Ballpark has become one of the more extreme venues for hitters. Fantasy players tend to underestimate the value in Reds players, and if you can find a good hitter who switches teams to the Reds maybe you will have considerably higher production?

To make a better overall judgement of a ballpark you have to consider other things than only home runs, for example runs. But these numbers give us a pointer about where you want your players to hit/pitch. Variance will always play a big role in fantasy sports during a short period of time, but the only thing you can do as a team owner is to try to give your own team the best chance to win.

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